Moore vs Jones

    There were a lot of things about the recent special Senate election that have been reported wrong and or just didn't happen.  As the pundits adroitly manipulated the numbers from the last several elections in Alabama to divine what might happen they totally missed the import of the numbers they were looking at.
    The first and most important fact that is never reported enough is states like Alabama are NOT "deep red". They are purple at best and they will remain so.  The reported recapitulations of the last several years of statewide elections in Alabama show the votes have always been very close.  I would really like to know what roll increased scrutiny of rural voting machines played.  No matter. There were over 22,000 write in votes for other candidates.  You have to believe they were republicans who never would have voted for Jones but couldn't vote for Moore.  It is reasonable to observe a generic republican candidate would have won albeit narrowly.  It was Moore's election to lose and he stayed in and did just that.  Only Moore could have lost this election but it's a shame he lost over 30 year old allegations whether they were true, distasteful or not true.  The guy has been a flat out, objectionable nut case in much more recent years.  It's hard to imagine someone like this has stayed out of jail let alone held public office; without visiting any malls.
    It does seem to be a rejection of the influence of Trump.  First, he backed Luther Strange in the primary and was rejected by the voters and then came late to the cause of Roy Moore and was once again rejected.  It's reasonable to say those 22,000 write-in votes were votes against Trump.  It's also reasonable to say Strange would have won the general election.  However, is anyone surprised a real estate tycoon from New York doesn't have a lot of influence in the deep south?
    In spite of what the pundits say there doesn't seem to be any predictive value for next year beyond the ordinary. The out party is going to be highly motivated because they are the "out" party. They will turn out in great numbers and the "in" party will lose seats.  Trump is very unpopular and will be a drag on republican candidates.  Nothing that happened  in Alabama will change that but we see projection after projection saying there is some indication of a sea-change. Nah.
    We saw the same "urban" verses "rural" divide and it's being much discussed.  The truth is, no such thing seems to actually exist.  What has happened and is happening is where people live in greater numbers they vote against republican candidates.  The standard republican message of exclusion for whatever reason just doesn't work on Americans grouped in large numbers.  It may be that people living in closer proximity understand exclusion doesn't work.  It is probably just a fluke in numbers distribution in large groups.  Now, you can't really sell that on CNN but if you're a political consultant or a politician you should understand and remember.
    The election coverage did re-prove one time honored axiom: Unless it is currently on fire or being shot into space, television news is worthless as a source of information.