For This Day

I want to go the bar

but not how you would think.

I really want to go to the bar,

Ten years ago.

I don't want to go for the first time

or the second time

but for the umpteenth time.

I want to slide on to my stool and

have my drink in front of me

with that familiar smile

or even scowl

from the bartender's day.

Events I would know all about,

except for the very latest.

I don't want to make friends.... 

today.

I want the comfort of easy,

long acquaintance.

I miss that old habit.

November 9th

    I don't like predictions committed to print. We have a problem looming that we should be prepared to meet. It's a problem for all of us, no matter our political persuasion. To be prepared, some small prediction is necessary.

    We can safely ignore what the chattering class is saying about the coming elections.  Without some sort of horse race,  there is really noting to write about and these people have regular deadlines. There are very few actual contests this time around.  The republicans are about to do something they haven't done since, 1998, when they paid the price for impeachment. They, as the opposition, are about to lose seats, in both houses of Congress, in a midterm election, without even a kiss.  Unlike ,1998, they will lose seats in the first set of midterms of a new presidency. That's completely unheard of.

    There are two ways they have accomplished this. First: They personalized and motivated the opposition by allowing Trump to shoulder himself on to every ballot in the country. Trump may generate a lot of cash and attract vocal support but it has never been more than a shrill minority and he generates coherent opposition just by speaking out. Secondly:  The Dobbs decision is a millstone around their waists that will pin them to the bottom and hold them there. Those things have left them incapable of generating any coherent initiative. 

    Here's the problem we all share.  The losers, no matter how much they lose by, are prepared to scream bloody murder in a coordinated, cookie cutter, nationwide attack on the integrity of the vote itself.  That is an attack on our country by witting and unwitting enemies that has to be met and roundly defeated. The people leading it need to be confronted immediately and dealt with severely. They are not prepared to abandon the assault on our society, even if this year is a setback. They will need firm correction. 

    This is what i think will happen.  The early and mail-in vote is outstripping 2020 and 2018, to this point.  That means the 'blue wave' is a crushing reality for our republican friends.  The political landscape is going to be grimmer than they can currently imagine.  I, personally, think the republican establishment will deal with their 'Trump' problem by the Ides of November.  It will be interesting to see how all that money will be dealt with. Women's empowerment will take a major stride forward and that's a good thing. It's all well and good for a liberal man such as myself to be alive to the positive things women bring to the table. It will be more useful to have republican men have to not just give a nod to women's concerns but be actually conversant.  That's how consensus is reached and progress made. 

    Now, we wait and now the fun part starts; where I get to see just how outré my politics really are. Well, fun to me.

    2006 was probably the most pivotal midterm of this century, at least.  GW was rendered totally irrelevant. Iraq was codified as the serious mistake it had been.  2010, in one way, marked the acceptance of the crypto-racist backlash that Trump and others have been riding ever since. 2018 merely reinforced the total rejection of Trump which had been underway since November 9th, 2016. This election gives the opportunity to cripple Trumpism and change the way things are viewed and quantified.  It's an opportunity for great progress. How we respond on the ninth and the following days is very important and an opportunity to see a very significant few days in real time and close up. That'll be fun too.

    How should we respond?   I'd like to see people spontaneously, in the streets in opposition to the attacks on our election systems. Just as the attacks on simple fairness and decency were met in response to the murder of George Floyd. We've done every reasoned and orderly thing possible to respond to the Big Lie. They keep coming in waves of coordinated attacks. It's time that was met forcefully and dealt with severely.

    Will that happen?  It's too soon to tell. 

    

In Russia

    There is no point in attempting to predict how things will work out with this invasion of Ukraine.  However, we can look at the existing dynamics without too much speculation.

    It is reasonable to observe that the Europeans and the world have had the better part of a century to think about what should have been done by the Democracies in the middle and late, 1930s. They are not reacting to the invasion of Ukraine as though it's the, 1939, invasion of Poland. In the last few years the Democracies have reacted much like they did in response to the partition of  Czechoslovakia and Anschluss. In, 1939, they declared ineffectual war.  They were unprepared.  This is not the case now.  We've armed NATO to the teeth in addition to direct aid to Ukraine.  It certainly appears as though the Russians are the least well equipped and the least cohesive force. We seem to be seeing a lot of Soviet Era rolling stock and hardware.  The Soviet Era was a very long time ago. The Russians seem to be falling victim to asymmetrical warfare. They certainly haven't won any hearts and minds. Morale has been reported to be a problem.

    Hearts and Minds. Russia is certainly suffering on the international stage for having no real engagement with the various Western media; social and traditional.  Sure, they have their bots and almost sleeper cells scattered around but that's nothing compared to a Zoom meeting with the U S Congress or appearances at the Oscars and Grammy Awards.  I can't remember anything like that before. It seems to be a new feature of that asymmetrical warfare. Zelensky is becoming a household name in the West. That adds to the unity of the Western Democracies. Hopefully, it makes him safer.

      By all accounts, the Russians have been decimated. At least, their initial committed forces.  That's interesting but Putin is kinda stuck now. 

   There doesn't seem to be any way to gauge sentiment among the Russians. In the ruling class and power elite, Putin really has no choice but to persevere.  Taken as individuals, the people surrounding Putin seem to be less than scrupulous, potentially violent people.  They make our malefactors of great wealth look like Boy Scouts. As these people's world shrinks and their fortunes are affected,  they well could reach the conclusion Putin has to go, in order to show a more benign face to the West and regain access to funds laundered in the West and the ability to travel beyond Russia.  Recently, there has been a wave of brutal murders of oligarchs. These murders do bear the brutish marks of Putin. There seem to be tensions there more significant than we might think. It could be that internal struggle will be more significant than Ukraine.  As for the average Russian?  Who knows?

    Russia will not invade a NATO country.  Russia is no match for NATO.  Putin has threatened nuclear war.  The truth is the Russians don't have the financial wherewithal or expertise to maintain a credible nuclear attack force. Even the Soviet arsenal was highly suspect.  It no longer exists.

    So, to this point, it's a series of unanswerable questions. It's reasonable to believe things will deteriorate. However, through the fog of war and bluster, we can see broad outlines. NATO will not attack but may well intervene just short of overt acts of war in Ukraine to tip the scales. In the long term, Russia has sustained lasting and severe damage. It's hard to see how any gain in Ukraine can be worth the consequences. That makes for a very weak negotiating position.