In Russia

    There is no point in attempting to predict how things will work out with this invasion of Ukraine.  However, we can look at the existing dynamics without too much speculation.

    It is reasonable to observe that the Europeans and the world have had the better part of a century to think about what should have been done by the Democracies in the middle and late, 1930s. They are not reacting to the invasion of Ukraine as though it's the, 1939, invasion of Poland. In the last few years the Democracies have reacted much like they did in response to the partition of  Czechoslovakia and Anschluss. In, 1939, they declared ineffectual war.  They were unprepared.  This is not the case now.  We've armed NATO to the teeth in addition to direct aid to Ukraine.  It certainly appears as though the Russians are the least well equipped and the least cohesive force. We seem to be seeing a lot of Soviet Era rolling stock and hardware.  The Soviet Era was a very long time ago. The Russians seem to be falling victim to asymmetrical warfare. They certainly haven't won any hearts and minds. Morale has been reported to be a problem.

    Hearts and Minds. Russia is certainly suffering on the international stage for having no real engagement with the various Western media; social and traditional.  Sure, they have their bots and almost sleeper cells scattered around but that's nothing compared to a Zoom meeting with the U S Congress or appearances at the Oscars and Grammy Awards.  I can't remember anything like that before. It seems to be a new feature of that asymmetrical warfare. Zelensky is becoming a household name in the West. That adds to the unity of the Western Democracies. Hopefully, it makes him safer.

      By all accounts, the Russians have been decimated. At least, their initial committed forces.  That's interesting but Putin is kinda stuck now. 

   There doesn't seem to be any way to gauge sentiment among the Russians. In the ruling class and power elite, Putin really has no choice but to persevere.  Taken as individuals, the people surrounding Putin seem to be less than scrupulous, potentially violent people.  They make our malefactors of great wealth look like Boy Scouts. As these people's world shrinks and their fortunes are affected,  they well could reach the conclusion Putin has to go, in order to show a more benign face to the West and regain access to funds laundered in the West and the ability to travel beyond Russia.  Recently, there has been a wave of brutal murders of oligarchs. These murders do bear the brutish marks of Putin. There seem to be tensions there more significant than we might think. It could be that internal struggle will be more significant than Ukraine.  As for the average Russian?  Who knows?

    Russia will not invade a NATO country.  Russia is no match for NATO.  Putin has threatened nuclear war.  The truth is the Russians don't have the financial wherewithal or expertise to maintain a credible nuclear attack force. Even the Soviet arsenal was highly suspect.  It no longer exists.

    So, to this point, it's a series of unanswerable questions. It's reasonable to believe things will deteriorate. However, through the fog of war and bluster, we can see broad outlines. NATO will not attack but may well intervene just short of overt acts of war in Ukraine to tip the scales. In the long term, Russia has sustained lasting and severe damage. It's hard to see how any gain in Ukraine can be worth the consequences. That makes for a very weak negotiating position.