I don't like predictions committed to print. We have a problem looming that we should be prepared to meet. It's a problem for all of us, no matter our political persuasion. To be prepared, some small prediction is necessary.
We can safely ignore what the chattering class is saying about the coming elections. Without some sort of horse race, there is really noting to write about and these people have regular deadlines. There are very few actual contests this time around. The republicans are about to do something they haven't done since, 1998, when they paid the price for impeachment. They, as the opposition, are about to lose seats, in both houses of Congress, in a midterm election, without even a kiss. Unlike ,1998, they will lose seats in the first set of midterms of a new presidency. That's completely unheard of.
There are two ways they have accomplished this. First: They personalized and motivated the opposition by allowing Trump to shoulder himself on to every ballot in the country. Trump may generate a lot of cash and attract vocal support but it has never been more than a shrill minority and he generates coherent opposition just by speaking out. Secondly: The Dobbs decision is a millstone around their waists that will pin them to the bottom and hold them there. Those things have left them incapable of generating any coherent initiative.
Here's the problem we all share. The losers, no matter how much they lose by, are prepared to scream bloody murder in a coordinated, cookie cutter, nationwide attack on the integrity of the vote itself. That is an attack on our country by witting and unwitting enemies that has to be met and roundly defeated. The people leading it need to be confronted immediately and dealt with severely. They are not prepared to abandon the assault on our society, even if this year is a setback. They will need firm correction.
This is what i think will happen. The early and mail-in vote is outstripping 2020 and 2018, to this point. That means the 'blue wave' is a crushing reality for our republican friends. The political landscape is going to be grimmer than they can currently imagine. I, personally, think the republican establishment will deal with their 'Trump' problem by the Ides of November. It will be interesting to see how all that money will be dealt with. Women's empowerment will take a major stride forward and that's a good thing. It's all well and good for a liberal man such as myself to be alive to the positive things women bring to the table. It will be more useful to have republican men have to not just give a nod to women's concerns but be actually conversant. That's how consensus is reached and progress made.
Now, we wait and now the fun part starts; where I get to see just how outré my politics really are. Well, fun to me.
2006 was probably the most pivotal midterm of this century, at least. GW was rendered totally irrelevant. Iraq was codified as the serious mistake it had been. 2010, in one way, marked the acceptance of the crypto-racist backlash that Trump and others have been riding ever since. 2018 merely reinforced the total rejection of Trump which had been underway since November 9th, 2016. This election gives the opportunity to cripple Trumpism and change the way things are viewed and quantified. It's an opportunity for great progress. How we respond on the ninth and the following days is very important and an opportunity to see a very significant few days in real time and close up. That'll be fun too.
How should we respond? I'd like to see people spontaneously, in the streets in opposition to the attacks on our election systems. Just as the attacks on simple fairness and decency were met in response to the murder of George Floyd. We've done every reasoned and orderly thing possible to respond to the Big Lie. They keep coming in waves of coordinated attacks. It's time that was met forcefully and dealt with severely.
Will that happen? It's too soon to tell.
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